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Willful Ignorance

The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

Wiley, J,
E-Book ( PDF mit Adobe DRM )
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An original account of willful ignorance and how thisprinciple relates to modern probability and statisticalmethods
Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers andthe problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historicalevolution of probability and explains how statistical methods havehelped to propel scientific research. However, the past success ofstatistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplificationsamounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatensfuture advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields.Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals ofscientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation ofboth scientists and the lay public.
Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertaintyexposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure ofour uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology,though enormously productive and influential over the past century,is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide betweenqualitative and quantitative modes of research, and betweenresearch and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem.The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of dataanalysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientificdiscovery.
Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presentsessential information and novel ideas that should be of interest toanyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The bookis especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and relatedfields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedicaland social science researchers, business leaders, andpolicy-makers.


Titel: Willful Ignorance
Autoren/Herausgeber: Herbert I. Weisberg
Ausgabe: 1. Auflage

ISBN/EAN: 9781118594414

Seitenzahl: 452
Produktform: E-Book
Sprache: Englisch

Herbert I. Weisberg, PhD, is Founder of Causalytics, LLC, which develops innovative technology for predictive analytics for both medical research and business applications. He was previously President of Correlation Research Inc., a consulting firm specializing in the application of statistics to various business and legal issues. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Dr. Weisberg has published numerous articles and two previous books related to applied statistics. - Newsletter
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